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汶川、理县、茂县可以适宜迁移吗?

面对中国汶川、理县、茂县这次大地震的灾难，在悲痛之余，本人作为从事设计行业第一时间想到的是，这个地区我们还适宜重建吗？还适宜住人吗？毕竟，在我脑海里，浮出的第一个问题就是，经过大地震，下面的地壳已经是不稳定了，我们在原址重建家园是否还有必要和合理？我个人的想法是既然花钱去重建，不如另起炉灶．但今晚看到论坛里众多同行的讨论，这个想法让我深思．下面把两个主要的观点发上来，朋友们也可以进来讨论一下．发表意见．

网友：arcmingzhu

1.历史与现代。汶川、理县、茂县的形成与羌族的被追杀逃亡避难有关。古代被追赶的羌族利用天险形成自己的部落得以发展，但是羌族的雕楼住宅没有防震能力也是阻碍其发展的原因之一。现在各族共存的背景下是否有必要原址重建值得探讨。
2.现状。岷江两岸地势、植被、土壤等脆弱生态环境不适宜继续居住。同时外出打工的空心农村等社会现状也充分说明这一问题。
3.生态移民意义。在盆地或者豆浆堰市周边甚至更远摄至移民特别保护区，（比三峡移民简单些...）。对于震区进行现状保留，将会具有极大的科学研究，历史教育等价值。震区将会成为最大的自然地震博物馆，属世界遗产。汶川县此后成为“汶川地震人文与自然保护区”

谢谢大家对灾区的关心，我的老家在离震中不远的绵阳安县，在那里度过了幼年时代，对那里的土地和人民有着深厚的感情。我大学在重庆读的城市规划专业，在学习和实践中对山地城市也有着深刻的认识。2002年的时候曾经徒步游历米亚罗至理县一带，途经都江堰和汶川，对那个地方的地貌和城镇特色也有一些了解。现在谈谈我个人的看法。

网友:沙虫

首先，我觉得，对于汶川等山地城镇来说，移民是一个大的趋势，主要是基于这样几点：

1，环境的严峻压力。几个深处大山之中的县城和乡镇，都是坐落在地形十分复杂的环境中，两边的山体坡度一般都超过了45％，且山石松动不稳，即使没有地震，也极易发生地质灾害。随着这几年城市人口的扩大、城市建设的加快，这些城镇的规模也不断扩大，为了有尽可能的的建设用地，势必对自然环境施以更大的改造，这样又会进一步引发地质灾害的威胁。

2，资金的巨大需求。且不说对目前受灾乡镇的废墟清理需要的费用，本来山地城镇的建设就比平原地区要采取更多的工程处理，在地震以后，所以的工程抗震标准都会提高，势必会大大增加建设的成本。如果用相同的资金在平原地区进行建设，会取得更好的效果。

3，疏散场地的缺乏。大家在电视画面中看到，灾后的城市满目疮痍，缺乏避难场所。这是山地城市用地紧张造成的，有的空地都作为房屋建设了，除学校外，很少有公共避难空间。而且一般山地城市的建设管理规范相比平原城市，在朝向、间距、建筑密度上的容许范围要大，也是造成灾难损失特别大的原因之一。

4，灾难的悲惨回忆。对于许许多多在这次灾难中失去亲人的人来说，回到原有的住地，灾难的场景会不时浮现，这对于他们日后的正常生活是极为不利的。一个新的环境，也许可以让他们慢慢淡化以前的痛苦，开始新的生活。

4，城乡综合配套改革试验区的机遇。前些时候，重庆和四川被中央列为城乡综合改革配套试验区，在成都平原临近城市的一些郊区农村，已经开始了很多较小城乡差距，改善农村基础设施，提高农民收入的试验。我觉得在这样的政策优势下，可以通过灾后移民安置的契机，通过政策扶植，将灾区人民吸纳到成都、德阳、绵阳、都江堰等周边中心城市，将大部分人转化为城市人口。

5，产业的需求。也许大家留意到，在阿坝州何飚主任的报告中，汶川县中的有一个乡镇是阿坝州的开发园区，是工业集聚的地方。目前山区城镇的主要产业，除了与城镇密切相关的加工业外，主要以水电、矿产等资源性产业为主。这些产业没有必要靠近人口大量集聚的生活城区。而另外一些机械制造类的企业，则完全可以借此机会迁出山区，到产业关联度更好的地方去。山地灾区的农业，注意以玉米、土豆等山地作物为主，产量低、人力耗费大，且水土流失严重，农业人口减少后进行退耕还林，反而会取得更好的生态效益。

我认为山地人口向平原地区的集中和城市化，是基于环境压力和人民生活改善的必然趋势，虽然我国山地人口众多，花费的时间和代价较多，但也不能改变这一趋势。

其次，移民是一个牵一发而动全身的事情，我们国家又历来喜欢采取“一刀切”式的简单粗暴的手段，没有解决问题，反而产生新的问题。所以移民也必须采取渐进的、灵活的方式，对不同的类型区别处理。

我反对那种单纯的“造城”移民模式，例如重庆三峡库区新建城镇，这些地方虽然在很短时间内将淹没地区的城乡居民全部安置到新建的城镇中，但是移民地区的产业空心化是一个困扰三峡库区多年的问题。我也反对那种消极的“发地”移民模式，例如宜昌葛洲坝和三峡建设工程移民，这些移民被安置在宜昌周边城区，政府发给土地自行建房，结果同样没解决就业的问题，还带来城市管理混乱的难题。我认为这次灾后移民重建的策略应该是由 紧急移民——产业移民——青年移民 三个阶段组成。每一个阶段都通过“小规划、小建设”的方式来实现

1，紧急移民。对于家园完全被毁，无法重建的村镇，要采取紧急移民的方式。目前这一行动已经在展开。有些村民可以往平原地区的乡镇转化，有些在周边中心城市可以投靠亲友的，可以通过国家的灾后补贴在中心城市租房、购房，并通过国家相应的就业指导获得谋生的技能。有人也许会问，移民大量进入中心城市，会不会产生就业压力？我觉得相当长一段时间内，国家会对灾区的基础建设有较大的财政投入，灾区的重建也需要大量人员投入，如果国家和地方能够在这些方面多一些就业指导，就可以很好地吸纳灾区的劳动力。此外带动的其他产业发展，也可以进一步解决就业问题。

2，产业移民。对于山地灾区的一些地方关联度不是很大的企业，建议向中心城市周边迁移。当然，如果要将这些企业全部迁出某县，在现行制度条件下，势必会受到地方政府的强烈反对，因为这样会极大的影响地方GDP。所以，可以借鉴沿海一些发达地区采用“飞地”的形式，这些企业虽然迁出，但仍纳入原地方财政收入，对于原地方的居民在招工等方面提供优惠。这样，逐渐在产业区的周边形成新的城镇，引导人口迁移。

3，青年移民。青年人是一个民族、一个地区的希望，也是改变一个地区的强大动力。我觉得可以通过在中心城市周边兴建大量的借读学校，把山地灾区的中学、师范、产业技术学校向外迁移。这一阶段的年青人可以不用父母照顾，通过国家补贴的形式，采取住读的形式，青年人日后的升学或者就业都会往大城市集中，工作稳定后将年迈的父母接来，逐渐完成移民。

最后再强调一下，我所说的需要移民的城镇，主要还是那些存在着巨大地质灾害隐患的山地城镇。而且，不论是重建还是移民，都要调动政府各部门和社会各界的力量，通过政策创新来妥善解决。

这些见解只是基于个人工作经验，还没有相应的数据支撑，错误之处还请大家见谅。希望我们的国家在灾难中减小损失，我们的同胞能够少些眼泪。

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